Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 95312.384706 100487.957349 105660.327654 111213.906129 117004.495741 122860.668550 129227.287915
2025-11-09 86386.014551 94260.000794 102346.220599 111260.628074 120801.666219 130696.515326 141723.366650
2025-11-16 80879.334010 90659.644950 100918.871163 112461.482731 125064.509192 138385.730148 153508.576930
2025-11-23 75824.830413 86955.966451 98843.002060 112446.890481 127548.672721 143762.888188 162450.928910
2025-11-30 72706.968498 85038.822079 98412.257781 113941.454512 131424.330155 150444.130349 172645.510534
2025-12-07 69775.413073 83082.024314 97714.726008 114929.796192 134555.368052 156157.782713 181657.941962
2025-12-14 66622.223974 80668.123560 96315.911245 114950.235351 136441.574744 160353.818162 188871.493110
2025-12-21 63993.449252 78703.045057 95289.085359 115263.469840 138546.964799 164709.481293 196203.336775
2025-12-28 62409.135958 77854.885231 95463.233324 116885.252623 142097.120249 170677.875200 205371.036357
2026-01-04 60733.177412 76804.617660 95319.502921 118063.143964 145075.055660 175952.779131 213729.393114
2026-01-11 58964.436846 75557.420155 94867.487907 118809.034413 147492.059010 180541.513439 221277.374038
2026-01-18 57046.593518 74047.860421 94029.147998 119027.081615 149228.688426 184295.260681 227827.698539
2026-01-25 55349.852503 72763.540709 93428.917268 119511.740358 151283.692873 188449.024684 234907.858495
2026-02-01 53531.788030 71265.098228 92512.554927 119564.112783 152782.552186 191923.716453 241184.354838
2026-02-08 52443.177572 70632.715797 92620.305283 120838.466708 155745.761409 197150.809674 249582.010491
2026-02-15 50792.166507 69230.837534 91722.285471 120823.115057 157093.139868 200405.063698 255592.944392
2026-02-22 50003.597381 68895.115061 92127.748363 122408.248330 160402.635284 206047.041754 264529.703846
2026-03-01 49012.420696 68260.704581 92125.341456 123456.350351 163030.888805 210856.382903 272468.497134
2026-03-08 47606.100729 67041.190282 91339.518617 123478.025443 164348.669817 214039.482284 278409.812163
2026-03-15 46409.752607 66058.481805 90822.021125 123810.177770 166034.003333 217666.134612 284904.049549
2026-03-22 45880.559389 65936.576208 91396.548757 125529.756095 169472.824097 223483.386907 294148.347065
2026-03-29 45177.279195 65557.435661 91617.125487 126778.518742 172307.695941 228554.225029 302487.611583
2026-04-05 44314.779341 64936.838668 91499.008798 127569.220384 174546.265837 232878.203398 309908.922365